→ Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Oil...

The problem with the world is not seeing the whole picture nor caring to understand the "why" and judging what they think are the "what's". First let me start by saying that what is below is not only my opinion, it's an "opinion" based on some of the most brilliant minds whose texts I read and voice I listen to (critically, of course).

If Israel was not heavily armed, and if it would ignore the attacks that are made, Israel would be long gone (what does Iran currently says about this again?) - and further more, if Israel did not defend itself, no one would do it for them.


Israel decided on it's own and alone to retreat from Gaza all their troops and citizens, and not even this had a positive response from the palestilians - or did it?


Israel tried several times to find moderate moderators (if you will) to talk with the other side for peace - (with no success).


And then what do the Palestinian do? They vote for Hamas.
(Pardon the use of "standard" here, some voted against, what matters is democracy is starting to get going, and Israel is, don't forget, a pure democracy that fights corruption and injustice).

Do you notice a strange pattern here?
And one could go on forever on how the world is seeing the wrong picture, but here's a short version coming up next... Mind you, to make it clear, I don't think anyone should get killed and people should talk, the Middle East seemed to think to same, until... Something (as usual) happens.

It was an armed faction of Hamas (Gaza, Palestine) that kidnapped the soldiers, and problem with confusion begins here. So what was "Hamas", the government, doing kidnapping the soldiers?

Or was it perhaps an manipulated rebel "armed faction" of the "Hamas" that then was
distorted into "it was the Palestinian" (their government)?

Now, let's check the chess table...

Clearly Iran is moving the pawns - Israel is one of the most smart states on Earth and Palestine has nothing to do with this, they know it, we should know it too.

It's about Syria and, most specially, if not only in the end, Iran.
Or why would Hezbollah's radicals (Lebanon-Syria) interfere trough southern Lebanon with affairs in Gaza that targeted the "Hamas" if it is not their concern?

This has Iran diverting attention written all over the place, and Syria taking advantage to regain Lebanon - if you read between the lines. More, Iran gets time to get the nukes they want and a visual excuse to pick on Israel.

Lebanon does not control (and never did) most of it's own territory (the most important part, at least) which is partially occupied by Syrian troops or by armed militias controlled by Syria and Iran.

So Lebanon's government is completely powerless to control these group's military actions against Israel in the southern border - Israel is not, hence the military action to compensate for what Lebanon's government can't do - so it's *not* an attack against Lebanon nor their people.

The thing is that the fact Hezbollah is in Lebanon's government, as in Palestinians "Hamas" case, makes the "government" responsible to the world. So is Lebanon under attack? It does has room for reasonable doubt, but mind the chess game please.

It's just another piece in the puzzle, because it's not Lebanon that is under attack, it's the Hezbollah's radicals, as I write, at least (and it's what I think, of course).

Civilians become casualties either by mistake/collateral damage or because it's very usual for terrorists to use civilians as protection and human shields, and let's assume we're talking about terrorists here (again, not the Lebanon people).

Who in fact "attacks" civilians for the kick of it are bombers that explode buses, discos, pubs, restaurants and so on, in Israel and now in Iraq (minding of a few other) - which "some" dare call "resistance", so you may imagine the kind of psychological manipulation and suffering going on.

Hezbollah has no roads, offices or whatever - nor keeps safe distance from civilians. It's almost impossible to target this terrorist group faction without creating unfortunate collateral damage. Thus, unfortunately may ripple-spread to the whole world if not contained with cool minded measures and observing who/what really is behind this and what the real intentions are.

But the method of "defense" is a fact, common to terror, and probably the Hezbollah's radicals idea too: to bring down one terrorist you need at least to bring down a civilian too, to bring down a battery of missiles, you need to bring down a bridge with it too, or a road and so on - it's of no surprise if they would hide in hospitals or schools or residential areas, or shielded by crowds in markets and the likes.

So, the only solution, to avoid further destruction is dialog.

The thing is the only purpose Hezbollah's radicals have is the destruction of the State of Israel - I wonder why - so, this kind of dialog would only end with Hezbollah radicals giving themselves up on a golden (or oily) platter, which, they will not.

The problem is that, due to cultural reasons, Lebanon's people (civilians) probably prefer to die than to (what they think is) bow to Israel. But Israel wants no bows, nor does it want conflict with Lebanese people, it just wants territorial security. This is a conflict as old as the Bible.

But this religious and way of being of Lebanese/Arabs is also explored and manipulated by the lords of war to further augment the hate, rage, confusion and resistance - they (the people that fight back) can't see they're being used, most specially the young (hence, strong).

And they (the people of Lebanon) really do not fear risking death - they are a very strong and united people, as all Arabs, with very strong values, and one should never underestimate (like the Soviets did in Afghanistan) their ability to resist for ever and ever, - even if mistaken - , because it's NOT the people at stake here, and it's *not* the people Israel is targeting.

All know Israel has to have tactical nukes (whatever they say) and if the people were the target... I leave you to guess.

So don't be fooled, and hope the Lebanon people don't get fooled either and rest assured the West won't do a thing (oil, oil, oil).

Iran is the one diverting attention from itself (it was getting a lot of heat from the international community) so with this "kidnapping" diversion, Iran gains time (and oil prices go up and down), Syria gets a chance at trying to regain the influence they lost when they retreated from Lebanon (and also in diverting attention from the Lebanon ex-prime-minister's "wipe out" circumstances) and Israel provides a motif to get under fire...

If only Bush was this foreseeing... Because Iran and North Korea outperform by very far the strategic think-ahead abilities of the USA (but not those of the Israelis).

So, on one side you have Hamas radicals, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah's radicals, on the other, Israel, and that's about it.

I can sum it even more, one side Iran (and probably North Korea - which is leaded by one of the most intelligent strategic minds on Earth), on the other, probably the rest of the world (we all have a rough idea on Bush's IQ)- so you want to really think well, think better and think again - carefully.

Israel can't afford to risk their homeland security for, as we all know, there's "someone" (president of Iran) who said several times that he would like to see Israel wiped off the map... So you still wonder why Israel has taken this kind of response? (and the precision warfare care not to provide a motive to get under heat as well?)

Who will win?
No one, it's a matter of who will lose more and how fast.

On whose side am I?
Mine.

Do I care? If there is suffering, yes, of course I care, but I don't take sides (none of those, at least) until knowing the all facts, which I don't, I'd just take measures to prevent suffering and to stop terror.

So who is right? As Einstein used to say, sort of, it depends on which side you are at. And as he also putted quite right, to know the right answer, you need to move apart from your current universe (side) to the whole one, which, given the situation, is exactly the problem (seeing the other side, and the third one making the moves), maybe all are trying to get the best solution with the worst methods...

And again... It's all about religion and oil, but it would take to much time to explain why.

No one believes me but I say again:

Religious leaders from a long gone lost past are still the ones that do - in fact - rule the world... And oil is but the current currency.

The world should not underestimate Iran, no matter how oil dependent we are, and do remember Nazi Germany signed peace deals just before invading those they signed it with, I'm not comparing though, the only coincidence is the diversion time-gaining in favor factor.

Also remember the more oil price goes up and our need for it, the more arrogance Iran can afford to show.

© Alvaro M. Rocha - All rights reserved.